Demographics and the 2016 Election: How a Diverse Electorate Shapes Politics

In an earlier newsletter this year, when writing about the current presidential contest, I predicted that the general election would be a matchup between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. While I continue to believe that this will be the case on the Democratic side, much has changed in the Republican primary. The simple explanation might be the unexpected trajectory of Donald Trump’s candidacy, or perhaps Jeb Bush’s inability to rise to the challenge of a national campaign. Beyond that, however, there seems to be almost an identity crisis facing the Republican party in this election cycle.

This identity crisis has become almost a soul searching as to how best to define a party in a unifying way. This is not unique to Republicans. Democrats found themselves in a similar situation throughout most of the 80s and 90s – when the far-left wing of the party was often at odds with more centrist voters. The strength of then-President Clinton’s leadership ultimately brought the party together – although in ways that didn’t always make either segment happy. In 2016, the outcome of both the Republican primary process and ultimately this election and beyond will be largely dependent on the Republican party’s ability to come to terms with how it defines itself in a much more unified way.

Diversity is a term that is rapidly coming to define so many aspects of American life. Diversity is the cornerstone that signifies the strength of our work force and the look of our neighborhoods. Diversity is also a term that has come to represent positive developments within the Democratic voter base but a more negative aspect of the Republican base. The Republican primary field, while representing the diverse points that exist within the Republican party, also represent views that are in large conflict with one another. Outsiders like Donald Trump and Ben Carson represent and speak to the fear and anger that exist within a disproportionately large segment of the Republican primary base. The rhetoric of these candidates and the positions that these candidates take are grounded in fear and anger and have a tendency to be divisive and outdated.

Other candidates in the Republican primary, like Bush and South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham (who departed the field in late December), recognize that their general election audience will expect to hear candidates who incorporate the language of diversity rather than divisiveness in their presentation to voters. Young people, Hispanic voters and women, in particular, whose political power grows each year, will evaluate a candidate’s credentials and character on a number of fronts. Whether it is the economy, foreign policy, social issues important to woman and LGBT Americans, these voters expect that candidates for President will speak about these issues in a way that reflects the unique circumstances of their lives. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that any Republican candidate who has the ability and inclination to do this will emerge as the general election candidate in 2016. And while that does not seem to be the case today, a lot can happen during the primary process that will unfold throughout the spring of 2016.

While Hillary Clinton remains the complex and sometimes polarizing figure she has always been, she represents the embodiment of what is most compelling to a younger and more diverse electorate. She continues to stand for what it means to have representative Democracy in the eyes of many – an ideal also represented by her predecessor, Barack Obama, the nation’s first African American President. Despite her age and prominent background, women, Hispanics, young voters and the LGBT community see the circumstances of their lives represented in her words and policy positions.

The Republican party’s response to an increasingly diverse America is to simply run an increasingly diverse slate of candidates up and down the ticket. But if those candidates’ words and policy positions don’t represent and speak to that same diversity that has come to define America, they are unlikely to capture the White House any time soon.